Modi’s Alliance Leads in 180+ Bihar Seats, Early Trends Show
Early Election Commission trends in the key eastern state of Bihar suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are headed for a decisive sweep, placing them far ahead of India’s opposition bloc as vote counting continues.
Ballot counting began at 08:00 local time (02:30 GMT) and is expected to run for several hours before final results are declared.
Record turnout and high stakes election
Polls were conducted on 6 and 11 November, with Bihar recording a historic 66.91 percent voter turnout, the highest since the state’s first election in 1951.
This year’s vote followed a controversial revision of electoral rolls, which opposition parties claimed would disenfranchise genuine voters, particularly minorities, to benefit the BJP. Both the ruling party and the Election Commission (EC) have firmly denied the allegations.
BJP led alliance far ahead
By mid, day, while no results had been officially declared, EC figures showed the BJP Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] alliance and its smaller partners leading in at least 190 of Bihar’s 243 seats.
The opposition coalition of the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and smaller regional parties was ahead in just 42 seats.
Although results may shift marginally as counting continues, the scale of the BJP JD(U) lead makes a comeback by the opposition highly unlikely.
The JD(U), led by outgoing Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, currently governs Bihar in partnership with the BJP.
A precursor to major state elections
The Bihar contest is being watched closely across India, serving as an indicator ahead of critical state elections next year in West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where the BJP remains a marginal player.
Bihar, home to more than 74 million voters, is India’s poorest state, with millions migrating for work each year. It is also one of the few major states where the BJP has never governed alone, relying instead on its alliance with JD(U) for power.
Women voters at historic levels
Nearly half of Bihar’s electorate is women, and this year saw the state’s highest ever female turnout at 71.6 percent.
Both alliances have extensively targeted women voters with direct financial assistance schemes, recognizing their growing electoral influence.
Controversial voter list revision
The EC’s revision of Bihar’s voter rolls earlier this year which removed 4.7 million names out of 74.2 million remains a flashpoint.
Opposition parties accuse the commission of disproportionately dropping Muslim voters, alleging political motives to favour the BJP.
The EC, supported by the BJP, insists the process was routine and aimed at removing invalid entries, noting that similar exercises are underway in 12 states and Union Territories.
End of an era for Bihar’s political giants?
This election may mark the final major contest for two towering figures who have dominated Bihar’s politics for nearly four decades:
- Nitish Kumar, JD(U) chief and long serving chief minister
- Lalu Prasad Yadav, former chief minister and RJD patriarch
Both in their 70s and struggling with health problems, they have alternated between rivalry and partnership to shape Bihar’s political landscape since the 1980s.
Lalu Yadav, currently out on bail after corruption convictions, has projected his son Tejashwi Yadav as the opposition’s chief ministerial candidate reflecting a generational shift that may accelerate after this election.
What comes next
As counting progresses, attention will turn to seat, by seat margins and the formal declaration of results. But based on current trends, the BJP-led alliance is poised for a commanding majority, reshaping the political map ahead of next year’s national and state contests.
