Ukraine, Russia & United States in High Stakes Trilateral Talks Thin Hopes
Negotiators from Russia, Ukraine and the United States have convened in Abu Dhabi for their first trilateral talks since Moscow launched its full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The format may be new, but the fundamentals remain stubbornly unchanged.
The stakes could scarcely be higher. Expectations, however, remain low.
Donald Trump is pressing hard for a peace deal in Ukraine, the agreement he promised but has yet to deliver. This week, he warned that Kyiv and Moscow would be “stupid” if they failed to reach an accord. Despite months of intense shuttle diplomacy by his envoys, the talks open with major disputes still unresolved.
Ukraine is participating because it wants peace more than anyone else, but also because it cannot afford to alienate Washington. That lesson was learned painfully last year, when Trump briefly suspended intelligence sharing and military aid.
Now, President Volodymyr Zelensky says his recent meeting with Trump in Davos was “really positive”, raising hopes of additional US air defence support against Russia’s relentless attacks. Usually guarded and often grim after encounters with the US leader, Zelensky appeared unusually upbeat this time.
Still, he is careful not to oversell what may come out of Abu Dhabi.
He has described the talks, expected to last up to two days, as “a step”, but stopped short of calling them a breakthrough. “We have to hope it will push us a bit closer to peace,” he said.
Land remains the core obstacle
For months, Zelensky has spoken of being about 90 percent of the way toward a framework peace deal. The remaining 10 percent, he admits, is the hardest, and Russia could still reject everything.
“It’s all about the eastern part of our country. It’s all about the land. This is the issue that is not resolved yet,” he said, laying bare the central problem.
Russia insists Ukraine must hand over a large part of the eastern Donbas region, territory Moscow has failed to fully capture on the battlefield. Kyiv refuses. For Ukraine, the line in Donbas is not an abstract red line, but one drawn with the blood of soldiers who died defending it.
Zelensky cannot cross it.
As these talks begin, the reality of the war remains close at hand. In Kyiv, the sound of funeral music drifts from churches with tragic regularity. Roadside cemeteries are filling with fresh military graves, each marked with flags.
Security guarantees and fragile trust
Another major issue on the table is what the United States would do if Russia were to invade again in the future. These so called security guarantees are, Ukraine says, essential to any deal.
Zelensky claims the outline of an agreement with Washington is already in place, but details remain scarce. Russia’s response is equally uncertain.
There is also a growing question over how reliable any guarantee from Trump would be. His fixation on acquiring Greenland has shaken Nato and undermined the principle of national sovereignty that underpins Western support for Ukraine.
Can Kyiv truly rely on Washington to come to its aid in the next crisis. For now, it has little alternative.
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As for trusting Vladimir Putin, few in Ukraine believe his aims have changed. “He really doesn’t want peace,” Zelensky said bluntly in Davos.
The Kremlin has warned that if it does not get what it wants at the negotiating table, it will pursue its objectives on the battlefield. So far, it has failed to achieve them, despite enormous losses. Instead, Russia has intensified attacks on civilian infrastructure.
In the depths of winter, those strikes have left millions without heat, water or electricity.
Cities under strain
Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, has again urged residents to leave the capital if they have somewhere safe to go. “The enemy will most likely continue to attack the critical infrastructure of the city and the country,” he warned.
After repeated strikes, the system is fragile. “The situation is extremely difficult, and this may not be the most difficult moment yet,” he said.
Across the country, the European Commission has begun deploying hundreds of emergency generators to hospitals, shelters and essential services. Around one million Ukrainians are currently without power, heating or running water. High rise apartment blocks dependent on central heating have been particularly vulnerable, forcing many residents to cook on open fires outdoors and rely on emergency warming tents.
Donbas at the centre, but not the end
As talks resume, both sides signal that Donbas remains the key sticking point. Russia controls most of the region, as well as Crimea and parts of several other Ukrainian regions, but its ambitions go further.
Moscow also claims Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in full, despite not controlling all of their territory, and has shown little sign of abandoning its broader goal of exerting influence over Kyiv’s government itself.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has reiterated that Russia will not back away from its demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donbas. “This is a very important condition,” he said, adding that there are “other nuances” still to be addressed.
For now, the talks in Abu Dhabi represent movement, but not momentum. With territory, trust and security guarantees still unresolved, peace remains a distant prospect, even as the cost of war continues to mount.
